I’m from Minnesota and I study Japanese history, so it’s only fitting I begin my writings with the newest Japanese import to Major League Baseball: Tsuyoshi Nishioka. In the off-season, Nishioka and the Twins received a lot of attention and criticism (example blog here), with much of the negative criticism surrounding the inability of Japanese players to repeat their success in America. Often, American audiences viewed Japanese players in the majors as having the inability to thrive. I believe Nishioka will have a challenging transition, but should be able to thrive in his new environment.

First, I want to address Nishoka’s durability. Nishioka has been criticized by many sports writers for his durability (example here).  Let’s keep this simple and examine the percentage of possible games he’s played in since he became a regular at the age of 20. The Japanese season has 144 games each year, and here are Nishioka’s games played each year since then: 122, 115, 130, 116, 120, 144. That’s 747/864 games, or about 86% of all possible games. He also played in the 2006 World Baseball Classic and the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Of course, we can go year by year: 84%, 80%, 90%, 81%, 83%, 100%. Odds are, then, that he hits a bit more than 80% of his playing time. Comparatively since they became regulars, Rickie Weeks has appeared in 65% of possible games in his career, Ian Kinsler about 76%, Chase Utley has been in 89% of possible games, and Ryan Theriot has appeared in about 92%. As far as durability goes, it’s a concern for real life and fantasy, but he’s not frail by a long shot.

Second, I want to address his average draft position in relation to his fantasy value. At ESPN, Nishioka is being picked as the #19 2B, which is a bit of a slight in my opinion. However, due to position scarcity at 2B, he’s being picked 204th overall, which is high in my opinion. He’s going higher than Ryan Raburn, Ike Davis, Danny Espinoza, etc. This statement of course shows that I value power, which Nishioka isn’t expected to show in any major league fashion. In other words, I find his average draft position to be higher than it should be. Something to remember is that if Nishioka plays 80% of his games and only produces a 70/5/40/.275/20 line, then he’s not far off of Ryan Theriot (70/3/35/.280/20), who is being drafted about a round later. Considering picks in the 200s can propel your team to victory, I’d rather look at the upside of Raburn, Gio Gonzalez, or Ike Davis than to hope for Nishioka to match Ryan Theriot’s production.

I’ll post more in terms of ‘the transition’ later. In terms of fantasy, I’ll be looking for Nishioka in the late rounds, but I won’t be reaching for him.