Kuroda in Yankee Stadium

I’m a little bit nervous about this signing, as even the greatest pitchers have struggled in Yankee pinstripes. After Kei Igawa’s dismal showing in New York and the recent breakdown in contract negotiations with Nakajima Hiroyuki, I have the sense that a lot of Yankees fans aren’t looking forward to the next big signing from Japan. Kuroda, however, has a lot of credentials in Major League Baseball: while he holds a losing MLB record from his stint with the poorly-run Dodgers, over the past two years he has been a stable pitcher: a very low 3.45/3.55 ERA/FIP, with respectable K/9 rates and nice K/BB ratios.

What worries me is Kuroda’s move to the “bandbox” that is Yankee Stadium. Kuroda has never pitched there (at least according to Yahoo), so there’s no sample size to make even a rough guess from. However, we can make some predictions based on ballpark effects.

Kuroda’s most notable ‘decrease’ in performance last year was a significant jump in his HR/9 rate, from 0.69 in 2010 to 1.07 in 2011. His HR/FB% jumped from 8% to 11.3% between the years. I raise this point because Dodgers Stadium, where he pitched 17 games last year, is the 12th most difficult stadium in which to hit a homerun. Between Dodgers Stadium, Busch Stadium, and Citi Field, Kuroda gave up 64% of his homeruns in pitcher-friendly parks. In Yankee Stadium, Kuroda moves to the fourth most hitter-friendly park for homeruns, and joins a division featuring sluggers Jose Bautista, Adrian Gonzalez, and Evan Longoria. Statistically speaking, the safe bet would be that Kuroda’s stats are going to take a pretty big hit. My optimistic estimate would say that Kuroda goes in as the 3rd or 4th starter and has a line of 12W/4.10ERA/150K/1.35WHIP. If he pitches this line, I think most fans would be happy about the $10 million investment and move on with the dynasty next year. If he struggles out of the gate, however, that depth of starting pitchers could push Kuroda to be released in mid-season. If the Yankees as a team struggle, it could even be a situation where they want to give more time to young arms Pineda, Ivan Nova, and Phil Hughes, and trade Kuroda to a contending team for some minor leaguers.

Broadly speaking, I don’t want to imply at all that Kuroda is a bad pitcher. I like him quite a bit, actually. However, I’m quite concerned that this signing has the ring of “being set up to fail.” Of course Kuroda wants to contend, but he’s going to have to be on top of his game all year in the AL East in order to earn his pinstripes. My greatest worry is that if Kuroda fizzles–possibly due more to environmental factors than performance factors–it will be another reason for mainstream MLB fans to claim that Japanese players can’t compete on the American market.

I have no particular attachment to Bowker, except that I paid $1 for him in an auction fantasy league a few years back. You tend to do that for a player that has a minor league career (2004-2011) average of .303 and an OPS of .865. He hit over a hundred homeruns and even stole a few bases, and his fielding was pretty average. Those statistics never translated to the major leagues, though. So, are we take Bowker as another example of an “AAAA” player–too good for the minors, but hopeless in the majors? And that he’s going to Japan as a last resort?

Not so fast, I say.

Context: Bowker’s MLB Career

Bowker began his MLB career in 2008 at the age of 24, and actually switched positions for the San Francisco Giants, taking over as the starting first baseman after spending most of his time in the minors. A 10HR player at 1B is ugly in every sense of the word, but he wasn’t playing in his natural position anyway. In 2009 the Giants replaced him at 1B with Travis Ishikawa, and Bowker spent his MLB time playing the 6th outfielder behind Nate Schierholtz and Andres Torres, and in the minors raked in the hitter-friendly PCL to the tune of a 1.047 OPS. That’s good, regardless of the stadiums.

In 2010, the Giants had a clogged outfield filled with some veteran outfielders (Pat Burrell, Jose Guillen, Mark DeRosa) and some upstarts (Andres Torres, Nate Schierholtz, Cody Ross). With so many outfielders and a playoff run in their sights, the Giants traded Bowker to the Pittsburgh Pirates for bullpen help. The Pirates, meanwhile, also had a glut of outfielders, and Bowker continued to rake in the Pirates AAA system, to the tune of a .939 OPS. In 2011, the Pirates had 7 viable outfielder candidates move through their MLB team in addition to Bowker, and was sent to the minors. At this point, nobody claimed him on waivers. He made his way to the Phillies system in time for their playoff run, where he had to wait behind the likes of Raul Ibanez, Shane Victorino, Hunter Pence, prospect John Mayberry, and uber-prospect Dominic Brown.

So maybe Bowker did amass 600 plate appearances over 3 major league years, but they were never consistent. He never actually got to play at the major league level where A) he actually had a chance to start regularly and B) start regularly at his natural position. At the age of 28 he is no longer considered a prospect by major league teams, despite hitting .306AVG/15HR/.830OPS in the minors last year.

What’s This All Mean?

I argue all of this to show that A) Bowker isn’t exactly a failure, and B) Japanese Professional Baseball isn’t a last resort. Bowker has the tools to be a Major League 4th or 5th outfielder, but for whatever reason he regularly landed on squads that already had 7 or more outfielders. Given the ‘reboots’ that Japanese Professional Baseball has given to other American players, it makes total sense that if Bowker can get some playing time in Japan to demonstrate his major league ability with a squad that actually gives him regular time and has fans that support rather than attack, he could return to the majors and see one last contract. Or he could just play in Japan and enjoy life there. Regardless, this move shouldn’t be seen as a ‘last chance’ or ‘settling,’ but rather as pursuing the best interests of the player’s long-term career.

In English:

Kuroda to Remain in the Major Leagues, Declines a Return to Hiroshima.

On January 9th, Hiroki Kuroda (36 years old) announced that he would play in America after becoming a free agent from the Los Angeles Dodgers this year. Hiroshima General Manager Suzuki Kiyoaki had sought to acquire Kuroda, but he said that Kuroda made it clear through a communication that declined the offer and said that “his direction toward the Major Leagues had been decided.”

Until 2007, Kuroda was with the Hiroshima Cap, and after 4 years in the majors he posted a personal best 13 wins last year (and 16 losses). His ERA of 3.07 was 9th best in the National League.

Staying in America: A No-Brainer

The only mark against Kuroda is that he turns 37 in February, which means that he’s old. That’s it. Sure, Kuroda has some declining SABR statistics, but they’re nothing to be concerned about. His Fielding Independent Pitching (a statistic that removes the quality of the defense behind the pitcher in the account of the ERA) was 3.78, good for 29th in the National League, right on par with his more-regarded teammate Chad Billingsley. His strikeout per 9 innings (K/9) rate was 7.17, just below more well-regarded pitchers Matt Cain, Chris Carpeter, and Jaime Garcia (7.27, 7.24, and 7.21 respectively. In terms of stats, his biggest knock is an increase in Homeruns per Flyball, but he still kept the ball in the park better than Zack Greinke and and Yovani Gallardo.

So he’ll be 37 in 2012. Last year, he made $12 million. I would almost guarantee that he won’t receive that kind of money this year, and he may not make more than a 2 year deal. That’s pretty much what Carl Pavano got with the Minnesota Twins–$8million a year for 2 years. Given that Kuroda has much better stats than Pavano (although maybe not the locker-room leadership), I would bet that Kuroda signs with a Major League team for something like 2 years at 9-10 million a year with a club option for a 3rd year.

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20120106/k10015111691000.html

Translation: Matsuzaka Starts His Comeback with Individual Training

After a surgery on his right elbow last year, Red Sox pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka began individual training  in Florida on January 5^th to make his comeback in the major leagues.

In June of last year, Matsuzaka had surgery to repair the ligament in his right elbow, and since the middle of the season has been undergoing continuing rehabilitation. After spending New Year’s in Japan, Matsuzaka returned to the United States, and on the 5^th arrived in the Red Sox’s Fort Myers, Florida facility to return to his practice. On a very sunny day and wearing a supporter on his right elbow, Matsuzaka appeared on the ball field and did things like running and broke a light sweat. Then he grabbed a ball for the first time that day, and to test out the sensation in his arm he played catch for about 20 tosses. As Matsuzaka has been in continuous training since the end of 2011, his body is less tight than in previous spring training sessions, and he smiled during his practice sessions and appears to be on the right track for a return this season. According to Matsuzaka, “This year there are a lot of Japanese players seeking the challenge of the Major Leagues, so I, myself, have taken this to motivate my rehabilitation. I think the fans have a lot to look forward to when I return to the mound, and I’m doing my best,” he said. Matsuzaka plans to be in Florida from now on, and if his recovery is going well, he can start bullpen sessions toward the middle of the month.

Use to the Red Sox:

Traditionally, it takes a year to recover from Tommy John surgery, putting Matsuzaka on course to return mid-year at the earliest. Matsuzaka is known for his fast recovery schedule, which during his career in America has, in my opinion, hurt his value more than helped. His desire to pitch and compete has led him to overstrain his arm, as was the example after the 2009 World Baseball Classic. This year, however, the Red Sox have a full 5-man rotation in their starting lineup with plenty of ‘fill-in’ candidates, and barring injuries to multiple players, there should be no reason to rush Matsuzaka’s recovery. That said, Matsuzaka is making 10 million this year, and the Red Sox are no strangers to enlisting starting pitchers that are recovering from injury. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Matsuzaka  have a line of 5-6W/4.20ERA/1.35WHIP and maybe 60K in 10 starts. As a 32 year old pitcher in 2013, I see him having the same situation as Hiroki Kuroda this year–demanding veteran money where teams are looking to invest in youth. That said, Matsuzaka could be a nice Carl Pavano-like investment for a team in 2013–veteran leadership and mediocre workhorse stats, all at a 6-8 million dollar cost.

This is a translation from NHK’s website:

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20120106/k10015100751000.html

Translation: Iwakuma has a Press Call from Japan

The Major League Baseball Mariners agreed to a 1 year contract with pitcher Iwakuma Hisashi, and in a call to American media reporters he expressed the sentiment that “I have been anxiously waiting and I’m relived it’s over.”

One year ago in the offseason, Iwakuma used the posting system to aim towards moving to Major League Baseball, but the negotiations never materialized, and this off season he declared himself a free agent from the Rakuten Golden Eagles and again aimed to move to the major leagues. On January 6^th, the Mariners signed a 1 year contract with Iwakuma, and American media reporters looking for information got a press conference call. In the middle of this, he said, “After all this waiting, my family and I are really delighted and quite relieved. In addition to the money, the situation with the team is really good, and I felt that my needs were met, so I chose the Mariners. It’s also heartening that Ichiro is here,” he said about his joining the team. In addition, he added, “I was brought up in Sendai with Rakuten, and I hope the reception of this news brings light and helps them keep persevering and fighting. For this next season, I’m looking forward to taking the mound for the Mariners at the start of the season,” he said with enthusiasm. Later during the same call, Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik said, “Our team needs pitchers with experience. Iwakuma has great control and he’s had success in Japan. He should become one of our starting pitchers,” he added with excitement.

See For Yourself:

Further Information:

• http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/mariners-add-some-cheap-upside-with-iwakuma/

The game’s starting pitcher, Scott Baker, threw 8 strong innings without giving up a run. Nishioka’s defense at shortstop seemed more relaxed when handling balls, and standing in on plays.

{Last part of article summarizes the Twins’ improving play in June}

From NikkanSports:

Nishioka Returns After 61 Games! Plays Strong for the Home Team.

The Twins’ Tsuyoshi Nishioka (age 26) played his best after missing 61 games. After recovering from breaking his leg, he started at shortstop and batted 3rd against the Chicago White Sox. In front of the Minneapolis home crowd, he got 1 hit in 4 at-bats and made an error. “The fans had been eagerly waiting, and I was really happy about the reception they gave me,” he said with a huge smile across his face.

It was an emotional debut in front of the hometown crowd. All of the Twins’ first six games were as visitors. His unfortunate injury occurred the day before his home debut, and he announced he could not display his playing style to the crowd. He spent time attending to his pregnant wife Naoko, who has not suffered any stress-related after effects.

His first hit in front of the home crowd came in his fourth at bat. It came off the second pitcher of the day, left-hander Matt Thornton, and it flew over the pitcher’s head before taking a big bounce at second base, landing for an infield hit. “I would have taken any kind of hit,” Nishioka said, unable to hide his delight. Defensively, he handled 11 balls. In the sixth inning, the home team’s Paul Konerko hit a ball that Nishioka handled but couldn’t get out of his hands, leading to an error. Despite that, his defensive range throughout the game seemed solid, and manager Ron Gardenhire said that he was plenty happy with the defensive performance and couldn’t hide his happiness.

After his injury on April 7th, Nishioka was out for about 2 months. The bone break was beyond his expectations, and he said that he was really down about it. Being at home, he felt like a cast off shell that the team left behind. He said, “Before mass media, players hid their true feelings–they’d say something about their life, but it wouldn’t be true” in those old days.

However, the injury came at a time of personal growth for Nishioka. At the same time as he came to America he had to support his parents and his wife. During his rehabilitation in the minor leagues, he got to see another playing style than the one he had been using for 10 years. “In an instant of negligence, you can lose your position,” he said, and he already feels the pressure. He said with pride, “Only in America can you see the improved Nishioka.”

“I was a bit distracted,” he said of the possibility of playing his first game at home in April, but now his mentality is much more “relieved.” The home crowd bathed him in applause. 95 games remain. The Twins have sunk to last place in the American League, but they are gaining some steam with the return of injured players.

Minnesota Twins’ player Nishioka Tsuyoshi (age 26) was injured by a runner during a sliding play while playing against the New York Yankees. An examination after the game confirmed a break in the leg, and he was placed on the 15-day disabled list. When the team returns home to Minneapolis, Minnesota on the 8th, a precise examination will be taken.

Nishioka was hurt in the 7th inning as he tried to turn a double play at 2nd base, and the runner from first base hit his left leg. Unable to stand under his own power, team personnel took him under the arms and helped him to the dugout. The Twins were having their home opener on the 8th, and because he is on the Disabled List, Nishioka will not make an appearance.

After the game, standing on crutches, Nishioka said, “(Immediately after the collision) I was thinking about playing again, but I couldn’t move my leg. When we took the X-rays, it clearly showed a break. It’s a really bad thing, really bad news that I have take, and I’m sorry to my team.”

米大リーグ、ツインズの西岡剛内野手（２６）は７日、ニューヨークで行われたヤンキース戦の守備中に走者のスライディングを受けて左足を負傷して途中交代した。

試合後の検査で腓(ひ)骨が折れていることが分かり、１５日間の故障者リスト（ＤＬ）に入った。チームの本拠地のミネソタ州ミネアポリスで８日、精密検査を受ける。

西岡は七回、二塁の守備で併殺を取ろうとした際、一塁走者のスライディングを左足に受けた。自力では歩けず、球団職員に両脇を抱えられながら退いた。ツインズは８日にミネアポリスで本拠地開幕戦を迎えるが、ＤＬ入りの西岡は出場できない。

試合後、松葉づえ姿の西岡は「もう一回プレーに戻ろうと思ったが、足が思うように動かなかった。レントゲンを撮ったら、きれいに折れていた。残念なことだし、暗いニュースを持ち込んでしまってチームに申し訳ない」と語った。

 

available here: http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/sports/mlb/news/20110408-OYT1T00152.htm?from=navlp

Asahi Newspaper Report:

The Minnesota Twins’ infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka (age 26) fractured his left fibula, and starting April 7th would be on the 15-day Disabled List, the team announced. While playing defense in today’s game against the Yankees, Nishioka was hurt when the runner trying to break up a double-play collided with his left shin. X-Rays confirmed the fracture. The time of recovery isn’t clear, but more X-rays will be taken when the team returns home on April 8th.

大リーグ、ツインズの西岡剛内野手（２６）が左足腓骨（ひこつ）の骨折で、１５日間の故障者リスト（ＤＬ）入りしたことが７日、球団から発表された。この日のヤンキース戦の７回の守備で、併殺崩しを狙った走者のスライディングを左すねに受けて転倒し、途中交代。Ｘ線検査の結果、骨折が判明した。全治は不明だが、８日に地元ミネアポリスで再検査を受けるという。available here: http://www.asahi.com/sports/bb/TKY201104080086.html

Thoughts:

It’s interesting to note that like American papers, the Asahi is reporting that the injury is a fracture (what type is unspecified until later tests). The term ‘fracture’ can vary in severity, from hairline to complete separation. However, the Yomiuri is reporting (and quoting) Nishioka as having a break, which implies severe damage. Given the location of the injury (just below the knee joint), I am assuming a fracture was sustained and will return after 2 months. If he truly sustained a ‘break’ at that location, he would probably be out for the remainder of the season. The reports seem to indicate a fracture, however.

Translation:

Tsuyoshi Nishioka Gets His First Runs Batted In:

The Minnesota Twin’s player Tsuyoshi Nishioka got a timely hit on April 3rd against the Blue Jays, giving him his first Major League RBI. The Twins won 4-3, giving them their first victory in 3 matches.

With his second throwing error of the year, Nishioka overthrew first base and allowed a runner to score in the 4th inning. Batting in the 5th inning, the Twins went on top with another run, and then Nishioka came to bat with the bases loaded. He hit a tough curveball from the lefty pitcher [Brett Cecil] and got his first RBI. Nishioka went 1 for 4 in the game with an RBI and the Twins won 4 to 3, giving them their only win in the series.

After the game, Nishioka said, “Because I made that error, I wanted to regain some of my confidence when I was in the batter’s box. And I had a good result. From that, it’s just every day I have to play my heart out and try my best,” he said.

西岡剛選手 大リーグで初打点

大リーグ、ツインズの西岡剛選手は、３日のブルージェイズ戦でタイムリーヒットを打ち、大リーグで初

てとなる打点を挙げました。ツインズは、４対３で勝って開幕から３試合目で今シーズン初勝利を挙げました。

２番セカンドで先発出場した西岡選手は、４回、ツーアウト二塁の守備でファーストに悪送球し、これ でランナーがホームに返って同点となりました。一方、バッティングでは、５回にツインズが１点を勝ち越したあと、満塁のチャンスで第３打席を迎え、変化球 をうまく捉えてレフト前にタイムリーヒットを打ち、大リーグで初めてとなる打点を挙げました。西岡選手は、この試合４打数１安打１打点で、ツインズは、４ 対３で勝って開幕から３試合目で今シーズン初勝利をあげました。西岡選手は、試合後、「自分のエラーで相手に点が入ったので、自分のバットで取り返そうと いう気持ちで打席に立ちました。結果につながってよかったです。これからも一日一日を大切に全力でプレーすることを心がけて頑張ります」と話しました。

Highlights

• I purposefully avoided the high price players and was ready to battle for the second tier, and I think I did a fine balance of reliability and upside. I fought hard for Zimmerman and Morneau, and kind of fell into Uggla by default. Still, the HR/R/RBI categories are solidified here.
• I made it my goal to land Liriano, and I might have overpaid for him. I have high expectations for him this year, but at the same time, my peripheral pitching suffered. I expected YoGa to be much more expensive, but it’s nice going into battle with 2 high-upside pitchers.
• Chris Young for $16. I think he’ll have similar production to Heyward (minus the average), so I think he’s a steal.
• 2B-eligible Ryan Raburn for $5. Oh heavens thank you.

Lowlights

• Carlos Marmol: I actually planned to get low-tier relievers, but Marmol accidentally found his way onto my roster. Brian Wilson went for $22 early in the draft, so when I saw Marmol, I wanted to make sure he went for a proper value. Turns out I was the only one to value him at $12. Not a bad purchase, but it threw off my strategy.
• Ike Davis, $9. I think he’s a fine player, and especially nice to have in this deep of a league. However, I should have focused on my pitching a bit more.
• Matt Moore in the 1st round minors draft, 2nd overall. I needed pitching depth for the future, and most of the stud minor pitchers went in the draft, so I grabbed Moore with the 2nd pick overall. I still don’t think it’s a bad move as I did end up grabbing Beachy and Gibson, but it’s always hard grabbing an A-ball player with a 2nd overall pick.

Overall

• I think it’s a fantastic team to ride into a dynasty. Nobody is extremely overpriced, and there’s a lot of good young players. I opted to punt holds, but that might change if I decide to trade Marmol. My pitching K category shouldn’t need much help, but my WHIP definitely will. I had hoped Slowey would be starting and pull it down, but now that he’s in the bullpen, I have to hope YoGa maintains control throughout the year.